The Russians never change
Whether ruled by Tsars, Communists, or "democrats," Russia has been and is an aggressive, imperialist power all-too willing to bully those around it.
Take the Republic of Georgia, for example. A former territory of the Russian Empire and the late, unlamented USSR, Georgia achieved independence in the early 1990s. After struggling through periods of authoritarian rule, it achieved democratic rule in the Rose Revolution of 2003. Georgia became a close ally of the United States, sending nearly 20% of its army to Iraq.
Since independence, Georgia, like many of the republics born from the rubble of the Soviet Union, has had to deal with Russian attempts to turn them into subservient clients or re-annex them outright. In Georgia's case, Russia's response to Georgia's growing Western and US orientation was encourage separatism in three Georgian provinces: Abkhazia, Adjara, and South Ossetia. While a settlement was reached in Adjara, both Abkhazia and South Ossetia remained rebellious, counting on Russian protection. At the same time, Georgia sought to protect itself from Russia by applying to join NATO, a move that further upset the Russians. Russia needn't have worried, however: the heirs to Neville Chamberlain who now govern much of Europe put them off, on account of their own fear of the thugs in Moscow.
That was all the opening Russia needed. They encouraged their clients in South Ossetia to provoke the Georgians by attacking their security forces. It worked. Georgia invaded South Ossetia to end the separatist rebellion, and thus fell into Russia's trap. Almost immediately, a Russian army brigade rolled into South Ossetia to attack Georgian forces. That this was a pre-planned reaction in coordination with Ossetian rebels is obvious. As Ralph Peters observes:
How do I know that the Russians set a trap? Simple: Given the wretched state of Russian military readiness, that brigade could never have shot out of its motor pool on short notice. The Russians obviously "task-organized" the force in advance to make sure it would have working tanks with competent crews.
Otherwise, broken-down vehicles would've lined those mountain roads.
The Russians planned it. And they hope to push it to the limit.
Read the whole of Peters' article. It's a good summary of the Russia's goals in this fight.
Meanwhile, Georgia has reportedly pulled out of South Ossetia and is seeking a ceasefire with the Russians. Their army, trained by the Americans and highly professional, at just 18,000 troops is no match for the hordes Tsar Prime Minister Putin can throw at them. Trading space for time, little Georgia is preparing to defend the town of Gori, a focal point of east-west rail and road lines in Georgia. The fall of Gori would cut the country in half and effectively conquer it. Russia has also attacked, but missed (lousy, probably drunk Russian pilots) the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which runs just south of the capital, Tbilisi. Journalist Damien McElroy describes its significance:
[British Petroleum] operates the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which transports 1% of the world's oil needs, or one million barrels a day from Azerbaijan to the Mediterranean. A spokesman played down the impact of the strike, pointing out that pumping was suspended last week because of a terrorist attack in Turkey. "At the moment the pipeline is not running at any capacity, because there was a fire," the spokesman said.
Georgia is a crucial link in a three-country energy corridor, vital to western Europe's oil and gas supply. The pounds $3.8 billion pipeline is the only major conduit for Central Asian resources not under Russian control.
The Kremlin under Prime Minister Putin used gas exports to Europe as a tool of foreign policy. Reduced supplies to eastern Europe forced Russia's neighbors to curtail pro-western ambitions. Western Europe, especially Germany, is dangerously vulnerable to reduced supplies from Russia at times of political tension.
Georgian politicians accused Russia of waging the war to achieve wider strategic goals. Moscow has portrayed it as an intervention on behalf of beleaguered renegade enclaves.
"They need control of energy routes," President Saakashvili of Georgia said. "They need sea ports. They need transportation infrastructure. And primarily, they want to get rid of us."
Thus Putin's latest war is not just a war to protect "poor, oppressed" South Ossetians, but to wreck the bid of Georgia and other former provinces to achieve some measure of economic independence. It's also a crude, brutal warning (the only way Russians know to deliver one) to the Europeans, who rely far too much on Moscow for heating oil and natural gas.
And it's a shot at us. As I wrote, Georgia has been a close ally of the US since President Saakashvili took office. Not only have Georgians served in Iraq, but US troops have conducted joint training exercises in Georgia. Putin's message to former Soviet states is simple: "America is far, and we are near. And they do not have the will to defend you. Nice country you have there. It would be a shame if something happened to it."
But all that is the realm of airy theory: grand strategy and diplomacy, shuffling papers in conference rooms and telephone calls between capitals. On the ground, where a small democratic state and loyal ally is being pounded into the dirt, the Russians are terror-bombing civilians, striking at apartment buildings and hospitals in Gori and Tbilisi. This is Russian civilization, its gift to the world:
To see more of Putin's handiwork, click here.
LINKS: Lots of talk in the blogosphere about this, most of it on the Center-Right. The best analysis of the strategic situation is Richard Hernandez's, at Pajamas Media. I suggest reading all his posts and many of the comments. Naturally, our two main presidential candidates have responded to this 3AM moment: read about it here, here, here, here, and here. Then tell me who you want answering that phone. Note also that the conflict threatens to spread. More on the role of oil from Power Line. (So where's the Left screaming "NO BLOOD FOR OIL" now?) Fausta notes the ties between the situation in Georgia and the Democrats' energy non-policy.
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