Last chance?
The most recent version of conventional wisdom for the Democratic nominating race is that tomorrow's primaries represent Hillary Clinton's last chance to stop Barack Obama and regain some momentum of her own.
Michael Goodwin of the New York Daily News takes that logic and turns it on its head: Tuesday night might be Barack Obama's last chance to knock Hillary Clinton out
You hear it everywhere: Tuesday is Hillary Clinton's last stand. If she can't win Ohio and Texas, she's history.
True, mostly. But it's not the whole story. The rest goes like this: This is Barack Obama's third chance to knock her out. If he can't close the deal this time, maybe he can't close the deal, period.
Either the third time is the charm for him, or it could be strike three against him. Any result tomorrow that doesn't finish her off lets her argue that Democratic voters' love affair with Obama was just one of those flings. She'll say buyer's remorse has set in, and it's time to get serious about winning the White House.
The delegate math is such that, if Obama does not win a decisive victory in both states tomorrow, then neither candidate can likely reach the magic number of 2025 by the convention. That would set up a situation in which the superdelegates --250 of whom are undecided-- could settle the nomination. Obama will argue that he generates excitement and brings people to the polls, while Clinton will contend that the public is seeing through Obama's "new politics charade" and that she represents the only realistic chance of beating McCain in November.
However it turns out, tomorrow's elections should be a turning point: either Obama slays the Clinton dynasty, or Lady Macbeth Hillary will take this fight to the convention floor.
Right now, I suspect the Democratic leadership is hoping for an Obama sweep; a divided, rancorous convention decided by the anti-democratic superdelegates would be a nightmare for them.
LINKS: More at Blue Crab Boulevard.
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