Hope for Romney fans?
It has to be frustrating for supporters of Mitt Romney's campaign for the presidency: he's the top fundraiser among the candidates, he's carried himself well in the televised debates, and he seems very well-informed on all the issues, holding positions near and dear to a conservative's heart. Yet in national polling he just can't seem to break out of single digits.
A recent CNN poll sheds a large ray of hope on former Governor Romney's chances, however. It shows Romney leading in the early contests in New Hampshire and Iowa:
Forget the national polls that show Rudy Giuliani, former mayor of New York, as the leading candidate for the Republican presidential nomination. A credible argument can be made that Mitt Romney is the front-runner.
The former governor of Massachusetts is now consistently running first in most polls of two key early nomination races, Iowa and New Hampshire — states where the voters are paying closest attention. Mr. Romney, the top Republican fundraiser in the first quarter of 2007, is generally expected to match or exceed that total ($20.6 million) in the second quarter and maintain his status as No. 1 in GOP presidential finances.
More money means more TV ads and organization, two other areas where Romney is already ahead in the early states, enhancing a sense of momentum. Of course, before any actual votes are cast, nothing is certain. In previous cycles, leaders in polling and fundraising have fallen flat come caucus and primary day. And in the 2008 presidential sweepstakes, the front-loading of the primaries makes the role of Iowa and New Hampshire less predictable.
But by playing the traditional Iowa-New Hampshire game, and so far doing well at it, Romney is putting the other top-tier Republican candidates on the defensive.
Romney's strategy is to do well in the early contests, hoping that will shake supporters of other candidates (notably the front-running Giuliani and fading McCain) loose and that they will gravitate toward Mitt. The national recognition that's eluded him so far would come his way with success, leading toward (Romney's people hope) a big score on Super Tuesday, when California and other big states vote.
It's a reasonable strategy, and certainly a large number of people have faith in Romney's chances (or want to cover their bases), given the amount of money he's raised. But it's by no means guaranteed: Thompson's all-but-certain entry into the race will upset the apple cart, as many social conservatives --people who've leaned toward Romney so far-- are just dying for him to jump in. And, as the article points out, defeat in any of the early races could lead to a collapsing campaign, leaving Romney as the Howard Dean of 2008.
Still, it's early days, and the race is wide-open. With three excellent candidates (Giuliani, Thompson, and Romney) and one good one (McCain), Republicans have some pleasant, if difficult, choices to make.
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