Following up on the news we reported yesterday about the possible defection of Iranian Revolutionary Guard general Ali Reza Asgari in Turkey, Meir Javedanfar analyzes why this should have Ahmadinejad and the mullahs in a panic:
Soon after [Asgari's] disappearance was discovered, Iran dispatched an operations team to Ankara to help the Turkish authorities to look for him. At the same time, a public relations campaign was launched with Iranian minister Mottaki has doing his best to downplay Asgari’s importance as an official in order to reduce the damage to the Iranian government’s image.
He wasn’t fooling anyone. It is clear that Asgari is a man privy to numerous secrets which Iran desperately does not want revealed. As well as being a former deputy defence Minister, Asgari was also a General in the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC). The IRGC, more than any other branch of Iran’s armed forces, is aware of, and has access to Iran’s nuclear program. Its members are in charge of monitoring and protecting Iran’s nuclear installations, and scientists.
Furthermore, the IRGC is in charge of developing and testing Iran’s missiles, an arsenal which Iran has threatened to use if attacked. Last but not least, the IRGC is in charge of training and arming Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Iraqi Shiite militants in Iraq.
And it could only be the beginning:
[Defection] would be interpreted as a major sign of discontent within senior Iranian military figures against his aggressive policies. With increasing dissatisfaction against Ahmadinejad emanating from Iran’s population; such a blow is something which Ahmadinejad can currently ill afford, and something that those who view him as a danger have been hoping for.
One of the great strengths of the United States over the centuries has been, almost no matter what mistakes we make, we can outlast our foes in the long run until they fall apart and are no longer a threat. Will this hold true with Iran? As they say, stay tuned....
LINKS: I wrote earlier about the Asgari affair here. Hot Air vents here, while the Guardian provides more details.
UPDATE: The Washington Post confirms Asgari's defection, and he's singing like a canary. Iranian officials say he was not involved in the nuclear program, and US officials say he is not being questioned about it. This could, of course, be mutual disinformation. He was, however, heavily involved in the founding of Hizbullah and probably has deep knowledge of Iranian intelligence operations abroad and terrorist sleeper cells, including in the United States. Ed Morrissey has a good summary of what this means to the Mad Mullahs:
Asgari may have become disenchanted with the direction Mahmoud Ahmadinejad provided for Iran after the mullahs staged his election in June 2005. That appears to be around the time that Asgari left the Iranian government, although it seems he continued his work in intelligence. That would make Asgari one of the most valuable defections for Western intelligence in decades, not just in information but also in motivation. The mullahs not only have to stop all programs of which Asgari has knowledge, but they also have to wonder how many other disaffected Asgaris they are creating with their reckless domestic and foreign policy.
(...)
Asgari's defection is dangerous and embarrassing for the mullahcracy. It threatens to expose all of their connections to terrorism, their operations against Western targets, and the network of sleeper cells they have threatened to activate if attacked. It might also expose points of political vulnerability for the hard-liners in Iran, including the Twelfth Imam clique that apparently sees no problem in massive destruction as long as their #12 highway remains open. It's also concrete evidence that high-ranking officials within the Iranian government are not all supporters of their current policies, showing disunity at a particularly inopportune moment.
In the shadow war with Iran, this is a big win for our side.
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