I've just run across this interesting entry at OPFOR, which analyzes the Israeli assaults on Lebanon of the past few days as preparing the way for a ground invasion aimed at destroying Hizbullah:
What we are witnessing in southern Lebanon is concurrent with actions designed to prep a battlefield for the insertion of ground forces. So far, Israel has relied on its dominance in sea and air forces to isolate Hezbollah, rather than focusing their brunt of their superior forces on actual enemy positions. By blockading the coast, neutralizing Beruit's airport, and damaging roads and bridges into and out of Lebanon, the IDF has cut off Hezbollah's supply routes by land, sea, and air, and blocked all lines of escape.
These isolation actions are eerily similiar to Coalition movements prior to Operation Hail Mary during the first Gulf War, where allied aircraft severed supply lines to foward deployed Iraqi Army units.
The end result is a battlespace that traps the now ill-equipped enemy force, the ideal environment for Israel to crush Hezbollah forces.
I think that in the coming days, we will see a sizable Israeli ground incursion into southern Lebanon, a campaign designed to exploit the favorable conditions that Israel has created for itself. I have the feeling that once that invasion comes, Hezbollah's ability to launch rocket attacks into Israel proper will be severly reduced, if not eliminated.
Given what I've read about Israel's mobilization capabilities, it takes them 3-6 days to get ready for offensive action. The fighting with Hizbullah broke out last Wednesday, which would make tomorrow Day Five. Could we see an Israeli invasion begin tomorrow night or Tuesday?
(hat tip: Little Green Footballs)
Recent Comments